UFC London preview: ‘Blaydes vs. Aspinall’ predictions
Ultimate Combating Championship (UFC) heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes seems to be love to (in the end) make his long-overdue step ahead in adversarial territory the next day to come (Sat., July 23, 2022) when he meets surging finisher Tom Aspinall at London’s O2 Space.
Moreover in store is a middleweight battle pitting longtime division staple Jack Hermansson against out-of-nowhere contender Chris Curtis, who steps in for the injured Darren Till on less than 3 weeks’ notice for his second battle in underneath a month.
Our usual main card guy got pan-fried via the newest heat wave, so this solemn responsibility falls to me once over again. As all the time, you can be ready to check out our UFC London “Prelims” analysis proper right here and proper right here, our odds breakdown proper right here, along with Andrew Richardson’s professional dissection of the other main card bouts proper right here.
Let’s get crackin’.
265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall
Curtis “Razor” Blaydes
Record: 16-3 (1 NC) | Age: 31 | Betting line: +110
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Best: 6’4” | Achieve: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
Necessary Strikes Landed Consistent with Minute: 3.52 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Consistent with Minute: 1.68 | Striking Coverage: 60%
Takedown Affordable: 6.06 (53% Accuracy) | Takedown Coverage: 33%
Provide Ranking: No. 4 | Final battle: Technical knockout win over Chris Daukaus
Record: 12-2 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -130
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC, 1 DQ
Best: 6’5” | Achieve: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Necessary Strikes Landed Consistent with Minute: 7.33 | Striking accuracy: 65%
Strikes Absorbed Consistent with Minute: 2.65 | Striking Coverage: 64%
Takedown Affordable: 4.07 (100% Accuracy) | Takedown Coverage: 100%
Provide Ranking: No. 6 | Final battle: Submission win over Alexander Volkov
An idiom that my Bad Left Hook colleague Scott Christ is fascinated by states that just because anyone hasn’t showed they are able to compete at a certain level, it doesn’t suggest they can’t. It’s unquestionable that Blaydes has a stronger practice file than Aspinall; the latter’s easiest win up to now were given right here against Alexander Volkov, whom Blaydes moreover beat (in admittedly less-dominant taste), and the second-biggest were given right here against Andrei Arlovski.
Aspinall’s merely seemed so very good throughout the process that he enters Saturday’s bout as a favorite. I’ll readily admit that his skills, from his boxing to his takedowns to his submissions, are all top-shelf among heavyweights.
Alternatively man, there’s just a just right deal operating against him proper right here.
That’s the number one time in Aspinall’s UFC career that he’s been at a disadvantage throughout the wrestling, and as sharp as he is on the mat, I’m not glad his bottom recreation is enough of a deterrent to make Blaydes hesitant to shoot. Even if he’s however got the technical boxing edge irrespective of Blaydes’ obvious improvements, those takedowns are a big equalizer.
Plus, even though Aspinall’s athleticism and takedown coverage hold up early, he’s not at all lengthy long past earlier two rounds. Yet again, just because he hasn’t doesn’t suggest he can’t, on the other hand Blaydes has the revel in to know the way to pace himself for the full 25 minutes.
That’s all moot if Aspinall can land a to hand information a coarse finish, if truth be told, and that’s lots conceivable. Issue is, it’s extraordinarily difficult to place Blaydes away. It took running full-tilt proper right into a Derrick Lewis uppercut to place him to sleep, a feat Francis Ngannou couldn’t organize in two makes an strive. He absorbed two of the nastiest strikes the dept had to supply, Mark Hunt’s overhand correct and Alistair Overeem’s knee, and went at once to win those fights.
Not saying Aspinall can’t, merely that it’s an edge case.
For my money, Blaydes is just too seasoned and too well-equipped to take Aspinall’s highest weapons off the table. He puts the fading Brit away with accumulated ground-and-pound each merely forward of or throughout the early portions of the championship rounds.
Prediction: Blaydes def. Aspinall by means of third-round technical knockout
185 lbs.: Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis
Jack “The Joker” Hermansson
Record: 22-7 | Age: 34 | Betting line: -115
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
Best: 6’1” | Achieve: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Necessary Strikes Landed Consistent with Minute: 4.97 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Consistent with Minute: 3.83 | Striking Coverage: 54%
Takedown Affordable: 1.73 (30% Accuracy) | Takedown Coverage: 75%
Provide Ranking: No. 8 | Final battle: Get a divorce solution loss to Sean Strickland
Chris “The Movement Man” Curtis
Record: 29-8 | Age: 35 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 16 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 12 DEC | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC
Best: 5’10” | Achieve: 75” | Stance: Southpaw
Necessary Strikes Landed Consistent with Minute: 7.23 | Striking accuracy: 65%
Strikes Absorbed Consistent with Minute: 6.28 | Striking Coverage: 48%
Takedown Affordable: 0 (0% Accuracy) | Takedown Coverage: 100%
Provide Ranking: No. 9 | Final battle: Unanimous solution win over Rodolfo Vieira
Chris Curtis is a simple man to underestimate. A journeyman-looking file, a longer stretch of preventing at 170 pounds, and a brutal knockout loss to Ray Cooper III in PFL combined to make his UFC middleweight run seem to be a pipedream. All signs pointed to him getting manhandled via greater, stronger warring parties forward of each dropping back down or washing out of the crowd only.
Smartly, he’s beaten 3 consecutive greater, stronger warring parties and seemed damn very good throughout the process.
Admittedly Hermansson is a some distance different beast than the likes of Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira. He’s certainly one of the most potent striker Curtis has faced given that latter’s debut against Phil Hawes and one of the most seasoned against top-shelf festival. Nevertheless, the tools that Curtis has confirmed in the past seem to be they’ll art work a care for.
Hermansson’s vicious ground-and-pound is neutered via his limited offensive wrestling, which doesn’t resolve to be any longer potent than what Curtis has already seen and grew to change into aside during his UFC tenure. That leaves his standup, which struggled to get any gain against Sean Strickland’s fundamental kickboxing. Curtis, who has Strickland in his corner, offers a good upper punch output and must have a number of choices to sneak in his signature body photos between “The Joker’s” huge swings.
Plus, going throughout the extent of punishment Curtis absorbed against Hawes forward of turning problems around, he’s moreover got the edge in durability.
Hermansson’s gasoline tank is just too deep for him to fade the best way during which other Curtis victims have, on the other hand “The Movement Man’s” airtight takedown coverage and slick boxing are enough for him to stick it on the toes and dominate. He outworks Hermansson to a choice victory.
Prediction: Curtis def. Hermansson by means of unanimous resolutio.